1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by retwin316 »

Wokling wrote:
Darth_Link wrote:
gogolen wrote:
Wokling wrote:Ignoring Rescues and assuming 2 twixes and 6 pullers, there is approximately a 75% chance of hitting a twix or puller in opening hand.

There is between an 86 and 91% chance of drawing into one of these eight cards on turn 1 (this number depends on the force icons your opponent provides).
so 14 % of the time (or 1 out of 7 games) you get boned - good to know

Or 100% based on my competitive trm games
You're just playing it wrong.
He probably is... My opponents seem to always get all activation turn 1 and even a 3p0 most of the time. Maybe he just needs to play against me lol



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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by mingtown »

Thanks for the shout out, Chris! This was a great read and congrats again!
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by imrahil327 »

I scramble to find a WB Blast Door Controls but can’t so I get sad and have to use my black border one.
Oof, rough beats, man. Impressive that you pulled through despite this adversity.
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by Wokling »

WiseMarsellus wrote: that's your probability of open-handing at least one twix puller
Do you know how to calculate the odds of drawing a twix by turn 2? This requires a couple of assumptions, so let's say DS gives 1 force at the start of the game and 2 force for the start of the TRM player's second turn. Let's also assume the TRM player successfully pulled a DB and drew up to 12 on turn 1. The TRM player will activate 6 force on their turn 2.

Do I multiple the odds of failure on turn 1 (11.5%) by the odds of failure on turn 2 (after recalculating the hypergreometic whatever) (25%) and subtract from 1 to arrive at the odds of hitting 1 twix in the first 18 cards taken into hand by the TRM player? Meaning, the failure to draw 1 twix or puller by turn 2 would occur roughly 2% of the time.

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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by WiseMarsellus »

that looks correct to me
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by Ardrra »

congrats, CK! and thanks for sharing the "behind the scenes" stuff with us

I had a great time at the MPC and enjoyed meeting so many players!
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by JarJarDrinks »

That * pigeon was gangster!
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by Corran »

Good read. I'm pretty sure the goal of TRM is to draw a twix for as many Battle Destinies as possible.
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by spideyguy0 »

WiseMarsellus wrote:for anyone else wondering about stuff like missing twixes, just plug the numbers into here:

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/ ... etric.aspx

poppulation size = number of cards in reserve deck before drawing your starting hand

number of successes in population = number of outs (twixes, twix pullers, or whatever else you're measuring)

sample size = number of cards in starting hand (or if you're map or something and want to know your odds of getting supply, also add the number of cards that will be in your used pile. basically the number of cards you'll have access to turn 1.)

number of successes in sample (x) = 1 (those are your odds of getting at least one twix. if you want to find out other things you're going to have to play around with it and understand the theory behind it a little more)

the result you care most about is the bottom one: p(x > 1). that's your probability of open-handing at least one twix puller
Can it account for games where you open-hand a Speak but activate the JCC?

Oh, and great TR Chris
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by WiseMarsellus »

you can, but it becomes a lot more work.

so let's assume 3 speak, 3 wesa, bnc, jcc.

the initial computation we plug in:

population = 54 (afa, y4 tr, hftmf, 3 effects)
number of successes = 8 (4 interrupts two sites)
sample size = 8 (hand size)
number of successes in sample = 1 (only need one of site or puller to be happy)

so we're 75% to hit at least one site/puller.

but now we're worried about activating jcc. we need to subtract the percentage of times we openhand exactly speak but not jcc, and then activate jcc. unfortunately there are a couple variables here, such as how much force our opponent gives us and if we pulled any cards out of reserve prior to activating. let's say that when we're up against a deck that gives one icon and we did not pull boss nass' chambers.

but first, the odds of openhanding at least one speak:

population = 54
number of successes = 3
sample size = 8
number of successes in sample = 1

38% of the time we openhand speak. now how often do we activate jcc?

population = 46 (cards left in reserve deck)
number of successes = 1 (jcc)
sample size = 4 (first turn activation)
number of successes in sample = 1

9% of the time we activate jcc.

we multiply these two together to find how often both events happen simultaneously (that we openhand speak and activate jcc) and find that it happens about 3% of the time.

so we take our 75% chance of openhanding one of the pieces, and then subtract the 3% of the time that one of those pieces is speak and jcc is active, and are left with a 72% to hit
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by gossuii »

Great TR Chris, thanks for writing (and posting!). And congrats on the title!
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Re: 1 Frisky Goat, 3 Turkey Sandwiches, and 36 WB cards...

Post by seitaer »

I asked Matt if he can keep running power totals at each location on little post its in the corner and he declined. So I asked for a game cancel, but then Chris did not agree so I had to make a decision before a game time out. But no big deal.
I laughed.

Great report.

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