Day 3 Results/Stats

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Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Aglets »

Round 1:

Jonny Chu (LS) FW + 15 over Desai.
Justin Desai (LS) FW + 18 over Chu.

Brian Hunter (DS) FW +31 over Sokol.
Brian Hunter (LS) FW +5 over Sokol.

Jan Westergard (LS) FW +28 over Olson
Joe Olson (LS) FW +12 over Westergard.

Mike Gemme (DS) FW +1 over Nelson.
Mike Gemme (LS) FW +12 over Nelson.

Round 2:

Brian Hunter (LS) FW +25 over Westergard.
Jan Westergard (LS) FW +19 over Hunter.

Justin Desai (LS) FW +23 over Gemme.
Mike Gemme (LS) FW +11 over Desai.

Round 3:

Brian Hunter (LS) FW +26 over Desai.
Brian Hunter (DS) FW +3 over Desai.

So all in all, there were 14 games played on Day 3.

Light Side won 11/14 (78.6%). I'll do a similar analysis for Day 2.

anything else you'd like to see broken down?

Decks:

Chu/Desai/Gemme - Endor Ops (DS) and Profit (LS)
Hunter - Watto (DS) and WYS (LS)
Westergard - TTO (DS) and LS Combat Racing (LS)
Nelson - Cor Mains (DS) and Hidden Base (V) (LS)
Olson - IG (DS) and EBO (LS)
Sokol - Endor Ops (DS) and EBO (LS)


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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Nitsuj »

a half hour
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by arebelspy »

this is perfect. thanks!
Aglets wrote:I'll do a similar analysis for Day 2.

anything else you'd like to see broken down?
i donno what exactly you're planning, so you might already have this in mind, but i'd like to see day 2 results for the whole field as well as the top 8 broken down.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by JarJarDrinks »

Aglets wrote:Light Side won 11/14 (78.6%)
Wow. Especially condering that 2 of the 3 DS wins were +1 and +3.
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Schele »

Day 3 results are a bit difficult to really count on W/L, since in my experience in match play games/finals, in the second game, once the match is effectively over, someone just scoops.

I'm not saying that happened for all of those matches, but it's more than likely the case in at least a few.
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by The Smoking Gungan »

Schele wrote:Day 3 results are a bit difficult to really count on W/L, since in my experience in match play games/finals, in the second game, once the match is effectively over, someone just scoops.

I'm not saying that happened for all of those matches, but it's more than likely the case in at least a few.
well, if you look at just the first game of each match, there were 5 LS wins and 2 DS wins. So the LS win percentage for just the first games (5/7 = 71.4%) isn't that much different from the overall LS win percentage of 78.6%

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Nitsuj »

Schele wrote:Day 3 results are a bit difficult to really count on W/L, since in my experience in match play games/finals, in the second game, once the match is effectively over, someone just scoops.

I'm not saying that happened for all of those matches, but it's more than likely the case in at least a few.
11 minutes! It only took 11 minutes for Schele to dismiss these results with this reasoning! I was off by a full 19 minutes! I didn't know, maybe Schele was going to put in his 45 minutes of work for the day, that is why I was conservative.

Tune in tomorrow to see him dismiss day 2 results! How long will it take? Only Schele knows!
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by _maul »

most statistics are made up on the spot.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Schele »

I didn't dismiss them, but merely pointing out how Match Play usually works.

Day 2 results are far more indicative of a true W/L for each side since it's Swiss. I doubt anyone would intelligently debate that.
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Anodos »

Schele wrote:I didn't dismiss them, but merely pointing out how Match Play usually works.

Day 2 results are far more indicative of a true W/L for each side since it's Swiss. I doubt anyone would intelligently debate that.
I'm willing to try to unintelligently debate it.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by arebelspy »

Nitsuj wrote:
Schele wrote:Day 3 results are a bit difficult to really count on W/L, since in my experience in match play games/finals, in the second game, once the match is effectively over, someone just scoops.

I'm not saying that happened for all of those matches, but it's more than likely the case in at least a few.
11 minutes! It only took 11 minutes for Schele to dismiss these results with this reasoning! I was off by a full 19 minutes! I didn't know, maybe Schele was going to put in his 45 minutes of work for the day, that is why I was conservative.

Tune in tomorrow to see him dismiss day 2 results! How long will it take? Only Schele knows!
hilarious win.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by woundedwookiee »

What do you think about this statistic then though, Schele?:
The Smoking Gungan wrote:well, if you look at just the first game of each match, there were 5 LS wins and 2 DS wins. So the LS win percentage for just the first games (5/7 = 71.4%) isn't that much different from the overall LS win percentage of 78.6%
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by darkjediknight11 »

haha...that sample size is too small to be taken seriously.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by _maul »

darkjediknight11 wrote:haha...that sample size is too small to be taken seriously.
lol

Throwing out Worlds Day 3 results as not being big enough to be serious? Considering the number of people who use locals on here as statistical evidence, I'd say that Worlds Day 3 is by FAR more useful information given what is at stake. People do NOT want to lose these games.

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Aglets »

Speaking as someone who actually watched the games in action.

What Schele is saying about how someone 'usually' draws up at the end of a match is often the case.

But in this case it almost never was. Ask Sokol, ask Olson, ask Hunter, ask anyone else there. I thought it was a little uncharacteristic...........but it seemed like each and every player was playing their absolute best to try and win each game, regardless of how things looked wrt the overall match.

It was neat to see, and imo it should happen more often.
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by darkjediknight11 »

_maul wrote: lol

Throwing out Worlds Day 3 results as not being big enough to be serious?
Trying to derive definitive statistical conclusions from 7 games can't be taken very seriously. Doesn't matter that they were the best players of the year...you can't say "OMG DS must be a lot better cause Hunter won by 31 with dark but only 5 with light in round 1...must be the best results since he's the best player!"

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by deck »

I drew up very early agianst justin, but in game 1... he hadn't played edge yet and i didnt want to give him a chance to
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by arebelspy »

deck wrote:I drew up very early agianst justin, but in game 1... he hadn't played edge yet and i didnt want to give him a chance to
right, it wasn't giving up, it was strategic play.

i got to way less than the 28 i lost game 1 by, but i wasn't gonna give up and draw, i was gonna fight it out.

and of course i won with ls, lost with ds.

/shrug

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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by imrahil327 »

Aglets wrote:Speaking as someone who actually watched the games in action.

What Schele is saying about how someone 'usually' draws up at the end of a match is often the case.

But in this case it almost never was. Ask Sokol, ask Olson, ask Hunter, ask anyone else there. I thought it was a little uncharacteristic...........but it seemed like each and every player was playing their absolute best to try and win each game, regardless of how things looked wrt the overall match.

It was neat to see, and imo it should happen more often.

I agree that a lot of players decided to play it out, but to say 'it should happen more often' is kind of doing a disservice to the Match Play format, since it's a logical strategic decision.
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Re: Day 3 Results/Stats

Post by Nitsuj »

darkjediknight11 wrote:haha...that sample size is too small to be taken seriously.
I give you an 8/10 for your method of disqualifying the closest thing we have to objective evidence that there may well be an imbalance with the two sides of the force right now.

I'm very excited to see the day 2 results - I hope you are correct that this sample size is too small and creates a misleading scenario - and reviewing the day 2 results will show a closer to even 50/50 (+-5%) spread for Lightside vs. Darkside. But if it doesn't, will you admit there may be a problem then?
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