kavanaugh

mikefrench
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Re: kavanaugh

Post by mikefrench »

AdmiralMotti89 wrote:
Hunter wrote:Because you should not have mistakenly indicated that we would give the presumption of innocence to *A* random person, instead of to *EVERY* person.
This is pretty incisive regarding what underlies Hirono's awful beliefs, that rights don't apply to everyone, and then it follows that they only apply to those one agrees with. Unfortunate to see that Marcuse is still so influential.
if kavanaugh or clinton or whoever was arrested and charged with a crime, they should have the same presumption of innocence that every person has.

your framing of this hearing as a criminal procedure in which presumption of innocence applies is silly (as it was when jake tapper asked the question). this is politics.

regardless, i'm sure hirono BEGAN the confirmation process with an open mind; jake tapper asked her that question near the END of that process. in a criminal proceeding, would you fault a juror for making up their mind near the end of the process? of course not, it's totally reasonable to do so. we just ask that they wait until they hear the evidence to make up their mind, and that's why we have the presumption of innocence.


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Re: kavanaugh

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Hari Seldon wrote:Haven't seen much on Twitter this morning (my go to for latest news and glimpses in to the very worst humanity has to offer) but as of last night it sounded like they had the votes. All R's were on board and even Manchin was looking like a yes vote. This is the wildest thing, I believe I have gone between thinking he'll be confirmed to he's toast 3-4 times in less than two weeks.

Anybody think Avennati will pay a price for this if Kavanaugh gets on SCOTUS? It sure seems to me his allegation and accuser were so salacious, the story so full of holes and basically beyond belief, and the crimes themselves such multiple orders of magnitude beyond anything suggested previously that it warped the entirety of the accusations against him. I don't think Kavanaugh goes HAM in his opening statement without the Avennati stuff, I don't think Graham does either in his statement, and those two things are among the more memorable moments of yesterday's hearing.
i think those are two of the more memorable moments and i don't think most republicans realize how damaging they are and will be to their side.

to the liberals here (and i will make this point over and over when talking to liberals out in real life), yesterday ben sasse and jeff flake have showed us who they are and what they care about, and we should stop believing their fake speeches. there's some thought that flake will vote no on this. he won't. he'll vote yes, he'll vote to confirm in senate, and we'll see kavanaugh on the court.
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Re: kavanaugh

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lol right after i post that i go to cnn.com and the headline is "flake backs kavanaugh"
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Re: kavanaugh

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oh and the full senate vote will prob be 53-47 or 52-48

flake yes
collins yes
manchin yes
donnelly yes
murkowski yes/no
heitkamp no
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Re: kavanaugh

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mikefrench wrote:oh and the full senate vote will prob be 53-47 or 52-48

flake yes
collins yes
manchin yes
donnelly yes
murkowski yes/no
heitkamp no
I've heard about Flake, but not the others.

Where did you come by this information?

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Re: kavanaugh

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They’re predictions. I’m already wrong on Donnelly.
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Re: kavanaugh

Post by Hari Seldon »

Flake seems to have gotten some kind of agreement to delay the full floor vote in the Senate for an FBI investigation if he votes him out of committee. It's clearly not binding I wouldn't think, but McConnell is now on the hot seat to let it happen it seems.

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Re: kavanaugh

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Hari Seldon wrote:Flake seems to have gotten some kind of agreement to delay the full floor vote in the Senate for an FBI investigation if he votes him out of committee. It's clearly not binding I wouldn't think, but McConnell is now on the hot seat to let it happen it seems.
It's just a big show so that Flake can vote yes but act like he doesn't want to. The Senate does not control the FBI and cannot initiate an FBI investigation to my knowledge.

If the Senate has the votes, they will confirm Kav without Flake's help. If they need Flake's vote, they'll get it.
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Re: kavanaugh

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Gergall wrote:If they need Flake's vote, they'll get it.
I think they will, and it sounded to me like Flake wasn't committing to anything on the floor vote without the investigation. I'm actually OK with this, although who knows what the Dems will come up with in the next week.

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Re: kavanaugh

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"nope, j/k"
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Re: kavanaugh

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flake's move is extra cynical/savvy - if the FBI investigation comes back with nothing much more than what we already knew, republicans can assert that kavanaugh was vindicated and those fence sitters have cover to vote yes.

don't be fooled, he's going to get 52+ yes votes. at this point, any new allegations against him have to have verified DNA evidence to stop this train.
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Re: kavanaugh

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Props to Jeff Flake for going against his party on this. The easy thing would definitely be to just fall in line now. Good for him and presumably Murkowski and Collins.

Good news for all the Dems too.....they’re getting what they’ve been asking for for weeks. I’m sure in the event it comes up empty (not assuming it will) they will be just as accepting of Kavanaugh as they are of Clarence Thomas after the FBI cleared him. Another fun fact......One week is twice as long as it took the FBI to investigate Thomas. If it comes up with more evidence against BK.....he’s toast.

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Re: kavanaugh

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an investigation has not been agreed upon, we're not "getting" anything yet.
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Re: kavanaugh

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darkjediknight11 wrote:an investigation has not been agreed upon, we're not "getting" anything yet.
I’m assuming there are at least 3 holdouts on the R side.....technically they only need 2. If they can keep McConnell from getting 50 votes (I believe they will) then the investigation will happen.
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Rian Johnson wrote: I would be worried if everybody across the board was like "Yea, that was a good movie." It's much more exciting to me when you get a group of people who are coming up to you.....really really excited about it. And then there are other people who walk out literally saying that was the worst movie I've ever seen. Having those two extremes to me is the mark of the type of movie that I want to make.

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Re: kavanaugh

Post by mikefrench »

prediction time

if investigation happens: regardless of what it finds, republicans (mcconnell and white house specifically) will say "this investigation has cleared judge kavanaugh's name" and pressure fence sitters to confirm. it will work and he will become our next associate justice.

i don't actually think the investigation will happen, but i'm not super confident on that.
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Re: kavanaugh

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mikefrench wrote:don't be fooled, he's going to get 52+ yes votes.
Where did you see this info? Or is this another prediction?

I think without the investigation, Flake is a no. He's going home in a few weeks and might like nothing more than to leave giving Trump the finger. That leaves Collins, Murkowski, Heitkamp and Manchin. I think without the investigation I can't see 2 of those voting yes. Although no votes from Heitkamp and Manchin might cost them their seats.

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Re: kavanaugh

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mikefrench wrote:prediction time

if investigation happens: regardless of what it finds, republicans (mcconnell and white house specifically) will say "this investigation has cleared judge kavanaugh's name" and pressure fence sitters to confirm. it will work and he will become our next associate justice.

i don't actually think the investigation will happen, but i'm not super confident on that.
If the investigation turns up with no additional evidence, then your statement is almost true as a tautology. If it does turn up more evidence......say if they can find one person to say yeah I was at this party with Ford and Kavanaugh or whatever (what’s the deal with her friend? That Ford said was at the party but denied it and Ford said it was because of a health issue? I can’t make heads or tails of that) then you are completely wrong.
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Re: kavanaugh

Post by mingtown »

Mark Judge is ready to talk.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/kavanau ... r=sharebar

Pretty key witness here.
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Re: kavanaugh

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mikefrench wrote:prediction time

if investigation happens: regardless of what it finds, republicans (mcconnell and white house specifically) will say "this investigation has cleared judge kavanaugh's name" and pressure fence sitters to confirm. it will work and he will become our next associate justice.

i don't actually think the investigation will happen, but i'm not super confident on that.
I'm actually hoping they do this investigation, although I must say my confidence in the FBI has been eroded somewhat. Some will always see a dark cloud over this man regardless of any investigation. Without it, though, I think many on the right will have second thoughts even if he is confirmed.

I thought Ford's testimony was solid, although the R questioner wasn't too aggressive. I also thought Kavanaugh's forceful defense was equally solid. Having said that, alcohol can make people do stupid things. This doesn't mean he did it, but alcohol can impair judgement.

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Re: kavanaugh

Post by WiseMarsellus »

Aglets wrote:
mikefrench wrote:prediction time

if investigation happens: regardless of what it finds, republicans (mcconnell and white house specifically) will say "this investigation has cleared judge kavanaugh's name" and pressure fence sitters to confirm. it will work and he will become our next associate justice.

i don't actually think the investigation will happen, but i'm not super confident on that.
If the investigation turns up with no additional evidence, then your statement is almost true as a tautology. If it does turn up more evidence......say if they can find one person to say yeah I was at this party with Ford and Kavanaugh or whatever (what’s the deal with her friend? That Ford said was at the party but denied it and Ford said it was because of a health issue? I can’t make heads or tails of that) then you are completely wrong.
she did not deny being at the party. she denied memory of the party. which, of course she did. it was a party 36 years ago in which nothing of any import happened to her. high school was half as long ago for me and i certainly don't remember all the parties i went to, or the names of many of the people i knew then. i don't think that's uncommon.

and with respect to the first statement, i don't see how that's true as a tautology. certainly a reasonable person could say, on the basis of information gathered thus far, that they have a higher level of suspicion that kavanaugh is a sexual predator than they are willing to entertain for someone they will confirm to the supreme court
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