President Marianne

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Re: President Marianne

Post by arebelspy »

Sounds like BrenDerlin might be up for a friendly wager.



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Re: President Marianne

Post by rsersen »

Gergall wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 3:43 pm
Does anyone know if, as a resident of NY, there is a way that I can safely and legally place a $100 bet on Biden?
PredictIt is a great (and legal) site for political betting. But it's more like an exchange market, betting against other users, than an actual book.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... nomination

In this market, Biden's price to win the nomination is currently $0.40. If that happens, each share pays out $1.00 (so a +$0.60 return). If you invested $100, you'd end up with 250 shares that would pay out $250 if Biden were to win.

You can also buy shares against a prop - ex. if Biden's price rises to $0.90 and he becomes a clear favorite, a "no" share would then cost $0.10, and would also pay out $1.00 if he doesn't win the nom.

You also don't have to hold onto your shares until the market resolves. If you buy Biden at $0.40 and he later rises to $0.90, you could cash out early (assuming someone's willing to buy those shares at that price) instead of holding on and risking them becoming $0.00.

There's also a lot of fun prop markets for stuff like approval ratings, individual caucus/primary results, VP nominees, or even how many times Trump will tweet in a given month. There was a monthly market back in 2016 for how many lies he would tell each month (based on Politifact ratings), and I cleared about $1500 just by betting the max over and over. Good times.
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Re: President Marianne

Post by Gergall »

Why is Hillary on there at 4 cents? Can I just buy a bunch of "No" shares on Hillary and get free money?
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Re: President Marianne

Post by quesosauce37 »

Gergall wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 3:43 pm
BrenDerlin wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 2:53 pm
Oh well. Turns out all orbs and crystals get you are a lot of ironic memes.

Has anyone started a "President Bernie Sanders" thread yet? Should I make a new one or just change the title of this one?

Cause idk how aware you all are of this but he's going to be our next President.
Biden has a good lead and is doing well in the early states.

Does anyone know if, as a resident of NY, there is a way that I can safely and legally place a $100 bet on Biden?

I would like to set up a situation where if Bernie wins I won't mind losing the $100 and if Biden wins hey, at least I got some money.
my bookie has some interesting foreign policy wagers i can place, but nothing 2020 presidential yet....
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Re: President Marianne

Post by rsersen »

Gergall wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 4:11 pm
Why is Hillary on there at 4 cents? Can I just buy a bunch of "No" shares on Hillary and get free money?
In short, yes. Assuming there are people holding no shares that are willing to sell. In Hillary's case there are, but in the case of other no-chance candidates (like Harris or Beto) there aren't.

So yeah, you could buy 100 shares of "no" on Hillary for $96.00, and make $4.00 several months from now (actually $3.60, as there's a 10% rake on profits that I forgot to mention in the first post).
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Re: President Marianne

Post by quickdraw3457 »

Gergall wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 3:43 pm
BrenDerlin wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 2:53 pm
Oh well. Turns out all orbs and crystals get you are a lot of ironic memes.

Has anyone started a "President Bernie Sanders" thread yet? Should I make a new one or just change the title of this one?

Cause idk how aware you all are of this but he's going to be our next President.
Biden has a good lead and is doing well in the early states.

Does anyone know if, as a resident of NY, there is a way that I can safely and legally place a $100 bet on Biden?

I would like to set up a situation where if Bernie wins I won't mind losing the $100 and if Biden wins hey, at least I got some money.
And most likely Trump wins and then you're out $100 in addition to having Trump get re-elected.
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Re: President Marianne

Post by Gergall »

quickdraw3457 wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 5:17 pm
Gergall wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 3:43 pm
BrenDerlin wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 2:53 pm
Oh well. Turns out all orbs and crystals get you are a lot of ironic memes.

Has anyone started a "President Bernie Sanders" thread yet? Should I make a new one or just change the title of this one?

Cause idk how aware you all are of this but he's going to be our next President.
Biden has a good lead and is doing well in the early states.

Does anyone know if, as a resident of NY, there is a way that I can safely and legally place a $100 bet on Biden?

I would like to set up a situation where if Bernie wins I won't mind losing the $100 and if Biden wins hey, at least I got some money.
And most likely Trump wins and then you're out $100 in addition to having Trump get re-elected.
No, we're just discussing a democratic nomination bet. My post could have been clearer but rsersen's link and price quotes are for nomination only.
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Re: President Marianne

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I mean I'm definitely biased because I really WANT him to be president (and I'm donating and volunteering as much as I can to make that a reality), and of course no one can be 100% sure of any prediction.

But it's a crowded field and while Biden has been the frontrunner for a while, he's one of the weakest frontrunners in recent history and could very easily crumble if he doesn't do well in the early states. It's still his race to lose but Bernie's got a better shot than anyone:

- he's the best fundraiser on the dem side, with the most cash overall, the most donations, the most individual donors (99% of which can give again)
- he's got a base of fired up supporters who are more committed to him than any other democratic candidate
- his supporters are disproportionately young and this will be the first election where there will be as many if not more Millenials voting than Boomers
- he's got the biggest and most powerful ground operation not just in the early states, but also in Super Tuesday states and beyond
- he's agressively pursuing a strategy to not just win, but expand the electorate itself by reaching out to non-voters (who are generally under-represented in polling)
- he's also surging in traditional polling at exactly the right time. He's now leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

While he's got a pretty decent shot at winning the primary, a lot of people presume that he'd lose a general election to Trump. But if you hold him up to the rest of the Dem candidates, he's got a better shot than any of them. He's consistently beat Trump in almost every head to head poll since 2016 (only Biden has a better average if I'm not mistaken). And yeah, his platform can be painted as "radical" or "far-left", but the reality is that the policies on his platform are all generally popular (raising the minimum wage, cancelling student debt, Medicare for All, etc. are all on average supported by a majority of Americans), and the fact that he's an Independent and not a traditional Democrat gives him more crossover appeal than pretty much anyone.

And while all of the major candidates would have liabilities in a general, I actually think Bernie would have the fewest angles of attack for Trump out of anyone else in the top tier. He'll be able to paint Biden as corrupt because of Hunter and the Ukraine, he can paint Warren as a phony because of the native heritage fiasco, and he can paint Buttigieg as an opportunistic teachers pet who's out of his league (because, well, he is). So far, the best attack he has for Sanders is calling him "Crazy Bernie" (which just sounds desperate), or just railing against Socialism.

The GOP has called literally every democrat in the past 30 years a socialist, do they really have a playbook for going against someone who actually calls himself one? It just kinda short circuits the whole attack and allows an actual public discussion about what the word actually means (including when it has the word "democratic" in front of it). And in general, that word isn't as much of a boogeyman for young people as it was for people who remember the Cold War. Who again, will make up more of the electorate this time around than any other age demographic.

So anyway, I'm not much of a gambler, but it seems like it'd be a good bet.
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Re: President Marianne

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I disagree with generally most of that analysis as far as Bernie getting the nomination, but i dont think many people post on here looking to have their ideas challenged and to debate facts. I know this may not seem consistent with my previous posting patterns on politics threads, heh.

I will simply point out that the betting sites right now list Biden as the odds on favorite to win the nomination.....and it seems like Trump is slightly favored to win re election against the field. Biden is indeed polling consistently the best against trump head to head, especially in swing states.

Take all that as you will.
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Re: President Marianne

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BrenDerlin wrote:
January 10th, 2020, 6:54 pm
And while all of the major candidates would have liabilities in a general, I actually think Bernie would have the fewest angles of attack for Trump out of anyone else in the top tier. He'll be able to paint Biden as corrupt because of Hunter and the Ukraine, he can paint Warren as a phony because of the native heritage fiasco, and he can paint Buttigieg as an opportunistic teachers pet who's out of his league (because, well, he is). So far, the best attack he has for Sanders is calling him "Crazy Bernie" (which just sounds desperate), or just railing against Socialism.
Dude you need to check your confirmation bias

Corrupt Biden
Phony Warren
Opportunistic Buttigieg
Crazy Bernie

Crazy doesnt count because it sounds desperate? Cmon man they all sound desperate.


There's tons of * they can put in a Bernie attack ad should he win the nomination. Moreso than Warren and Buttigieg for sure.
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Re: President Marianne

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I mean the nickname won't be Phony Warren it'll be Pocahontas. Sure it's desperate but people will buy it.

But next time I'll be sure to check my bias first by clearly mentioning it up top by saying "I'm definitely biased" or something like that

Anyway this graph of betting averages over time is really interesting: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... omination/

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Re: President Marianne

Post by JarJarDrinks »

BrenDerlin wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 10:40 am
I mean the nickname won't be Phony Warren it'll be Pocahontas. Sure it's desperate but people will buy it.
But they wont buy the stuff about Bernie?
BrenDerlin wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 10:40 am
But next time I'll be sure to check my bias first by clearly mentioning it up top by saying "I'm definitely biased" or something like that
check it harder :P.

Now I hope Bernie wins and I even registered as a Dem so i can vote him in my states primary for the first time. But I see nothing that implies he'd be better against Trump than Biden or Liz. The fact that an incumbent Trump is the opponent is the only reason I think a progressive has a shot.
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Re: President Marianne

Post by arebelspy »

Yang at 20 to 1? I wish his odds were that good.

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Re: President Marianne

Post by quickdraw3457 »

I don't follow the polls that closely but what happened with Warren where she spiked above 50% and is now at around 15%?
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Re: President Marianne

Post by Cam Solusar »

quickdraw3457 wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 12:19 pm
I don't follow the polls that closely but what happened with Warren where she spiked above 50% and is now at around 15%?
It's an interesting bit of data. I found this article trying to analyze it:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 41987.html

The slide began with her stated support of Medicare for all, but attributes it also to the "Dean Effect" theory that likely Democratic voters want to beat Trump more than they want someone who closely aligns with their political views.
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Re: President Marianne

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Warren's always been a proponent of M4A, but her slide really only started once she came under attack for it from the center, especially after Sanders had a heart attack in October and she came to be perceived as the only progressive threat (since everyone assumed he was finished). She responded in November with a more specific Healthcare plan that tried to have it both ways, but just ended up alienating her support on both the left and the center.

In the plan she's ostensibly for M4A, but says she won't try to fight for it right away (like Sanders wants to), trying for a public option first (like the rest of the field does). She also twists herself into pretzels to try to say no taxes will go up to pay for it, which is either disingenuous or naive depending on your point of view. To his credit, Bernie acknowledges taxes will go up, but is always quick to point out that these taxes will be lower for most people than the monthly premium payments they already pay (and will thus result in a pay INCREASE).

I like Warren, but her campaign has made a lot of unforced errors that would worry me in an election against Trump.
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Re: President Marianne

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BrenDerlin wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 12:57 pm
I like Warren, but her campaign has made a lot of unforced errors that would worry me in an election against Trump.
My neighbors who have a big Warren sign on their front porch have used dog crap bags strewn all over their sidewalks because of improper disposal so her flaming out delights me to no end.
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Re: President Marianne

Post by Gergall »

So they sort of clean up after their dog but then leave the bag on the sidewalk?
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Re: President Marianne

Post by shawnd1984 »

Gergall wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 2:06 pm
So they sort of clean up after their dog but then leave the bag on the sidewalk?
Sort of. They're throwing out dozens of small bags in the trash, and when the trashman empties the can, some fall out. Now... The neighbors should be putting them in a larger trash can, but now they just have smashed * bags lying about the road and sidewalk every week. So screw their political candidate of choice... Hope they are really emotionally invested in her.
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Re: President Marianne

Post by Aglets »

Ooh man the debate tonight should be spicy.
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