President Marianne

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Re: President Marianne

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JarJarDrinks wrote:
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i meant a mockery of Iowa.
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Re: President Marianne

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Re: President Marianne

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Hmm, I wonder how those betting odds are doing...

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Re: President Marianne

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Lol, Obama at .8, clinton at 4.5?

If this entire chart isn't a giant troll, I'm surprised Bloomberg is 2nd highest on there.
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Re: President Marianne

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Seems about in-line with PredictIt - https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... nomination

Sanders at $0.62, still a solid profit to be made. Bloomberg in second, followed closely by Biden. Everyone else in the distance.

I’d agree with that. Either the DNC will honor the will of the people and give Sanders the nom, or they’re going to use superdelegates to throw it to a moderate, which would probably be Bloomberg, or Biden if he can hang on long enough.

Idk how to explain Hillary here, other than people taking a cheap shot in the dark.
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Re: President Marianne

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rsersen wrote:
February 24th, 2020, 10:44 pm
Idk how to explain Hillary here, other than people taking a cheap shot in the dark.
I think it might be explained by how they set their odds or their price. It might be showing the odds or price that were used the last time somebody bet on Hillary, which might have been 6 months ago.

If that's correct then they could definitely adjust their model to account for that if they wanted to.
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Re: President Marianne

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Also, I found the betting odds interesting back when we had little else to go on. But now that there is data I strongly prefer fivethirtyeight.com

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Re: President Marianne

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Yeah, idk what the Vegas oddsmakers process is, but I'd guess that the Obama line refers to Michelle Obama, who's been included as hypothetical candidate in a few polls here and there, as has Hillary. But since they're not actually running and thus aren't on the ballot in any states, why include them?

I'm mostly guessing, but I'm pretty sure it has to do with that ominous "No Majority" sitting there in second place. After the controversy around "superdelegates" in 2016, the DNC Unity Reform Commission struck a compromise between the Sanders and Establishment camps to reduce the effect of party insiders in choosing a nominee. They didn't get rid of the superdelegates entirely (as the Sanders people were pushing for), but reduced the total number and didn't let them vote on the first ballot, meaning that if a candidate gets 50% +1 of the total pledged delegates from caucuses and primaries they will be the nominee. But if no one reaches the magic number of 1,991 delegates on the first round, then we enter a contested or "brokered" convention, which has never truly happened since 1952 - when the Republican nominee had lost the popular vote in the primaries and the Democratic nominee hadn't even run in them at all. We'd be in pretty uncharted territory as to what would happen in a modern convention that isn't decided on the first ballot, but it is technically possible (if unlikely) that if no one is able to get a majority a new compromise candidate (such as Michelle or Hillary) could jump in.

But I think that would be political suicide. Before 1972, political conventions used to be pretty routinely brokered by party insiders behind closed doors - the fabled "smoke filled rooms". There were some primaries that awarded delegates to the convention, but most states didn't have them and they were seen as more of a "temperature check" of the voters rather than inherently binding. They made the 1972 changes to encourage more primaries because the 1968 primary was such a historic mess: An anti-war candidate (McCarthy) got 42% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary which was enough to make the sitting president drop out of the race and other candidates to jump in, one of them (RFK) came close to overtaking McCarthy but was assassinated during the primary, and in the end, the convention gave the nomination to the sitting VP (Humphrey), even though he hadn't won a single primary and had received about 2% of the vote. Riots broke out from anti-war protesters and violent police suppression of them, and the Democrats went on to lose the election to Richard Nixon. Elevating primaries and caucuses was meant to encourage voter buy-in and to make candidates prove support from across the country in the hopes of avoiding disastrous outcomes like that.

So that "1 in 2" number is for Bernie to get 1,991 delegates and avoid a contested convention - and I think 538 currently has both Bernie and a contested convention tied at 43% or 2 in 5. The question is, if the leading candidate gets say 45% of the delegates and no one else comes close to that, are you courting disaster by giving the nomination to anyone else? In the last debate, every candidate except Bernie said that they didn't necessarily think that the convention should give the nomination to a candidate with a plurality (but not a majority) of the vote. Bernie alone said, clearly and without hedging that the superdelegates should not overturn the will of the people.

For what it's worth, here's 538's projection for how many pledged delegates each candidate is likely to get:
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Re: President Marianne

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The question is, if the leading candidate gets say 45% of the delegates and no one else comes close to that, are you courting disaster by giving the nomination to anyone else?
Not to get too tinfoil-hat, but I think the question is, does the DNC establishment (and more accurately, their corporate donors) fear 4 more years of Trump more than 4-8 years of Bernie?

I don't think there's any question that a contested convention that nominates someone besides Bernie would fracture the party and basically hand Trump reelection. But people have short memories, and come 2024 the Democrats would be in an even better position (as parties facing a retiring two-term president usually are). More importantly, 82-year-old Bernie would no longer be a viable candidate.

In other words, do "they" think it's worth losing this battle to win a larger war?
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Re: President Marianne

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Back when "no majority" was considered the most likely outcome for a while, 538 created this helpful Venn Diagram as a reminder that "no majority" does not automatically mean "contested convention"

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Article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... onvention/

TL;DR Contested convention means nobody is quite sure what is going to happen when the convention starts. This seems like really bad PR for the party and would probably be avoided if at all possible. If Warren pledged to donate her delegates to Bernie (in exchange for VP or high cabinet spot) long before the convention started, and that locked in a majority for him, it wouldn't be considered a contested convention.
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Re: President Marianne

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Gergall wrote:
February 25th, 2020, 10:21 pm
TL;DR Contested convention means nobody is quite sure what is going to happen when the convention starts. This seems like really bad PR for the party and would probably be avoided if at all possible. If Warren pledged to donate her delegates to Bernie (in exchange for VP or high cabinet spot) long before the convention started, and that locked in a majority for him, it wouldn't be considered a contested convention.
That's right, and if Warren does well on Super Tuesday it could put her in the kingmaker spot. Early on in the campaign I would've assumed that she would kingmake Bernie (which is still a plausible outcome), but since she's spent the last few months distancing herself from Bernie and trying to position herself as a more establishment friendly candidate who nonetheless is proposing more progressive policies than the moderates to her right, I have to wonder which way she would ultimately break.

I can't imagine her making a deal with Bloomberg but if it comes down to Biden v. Bernie with Warren in the middle, I could see her going either way. She could reasonably either sit on a ticket with (or in hopes of getting Treasury Secretary throw her support behind) either of them: with Bernie she'd be the Good Cop that puts the establishment slightly more at ease, with Biden she'd be a hope for a more progressive party and an attempt to not lose the progressive vote come November. Or she could go full Joker mode and not publicly officially drop out before the convention, in the hopes that she would come out on top of a multiple ballot process where neither of them are able to gain a majority.

Or Bernie could just get to 1,991 outright, and leave Warren in the Senate (where we really need competent people ready to fight).
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Re: President Marianne

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With the moderates dropping out over the past couple days, 538 now forecasts a 63% chance of no one winning a majority before Milwaukee, and gives Biden a slightly better chance of doing it than Sanders:

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Although in the event of no majority, it's hard to imagine any scenario where superdelegates throw the nomination to Bernie. So Biden's chances may as well be 84% at this point.

Unfortunate turn of events, but seems like the DNC is hell-bent on keeping Sanders off the ticket, even if it means repeating 2016 and likely giving Trump another term. But as I outlined in my last post, the establishment may see that as the lesser of two evils anyway, compared to a President Sanders.

On the bright side, doesn't seem like Bloomberg has any shot either. Probably the only Democrat in the field (besides Tulsi) that would make me vote for Trump instead. At least I can hold my nose and vote for Joe.

538 also has a primary calculator you can play with, to see how different outcomes will impact the race. Looks to me like if all the other states break the way they're predicted, then everything comes down to Texas. If Joe wins that, his majority chances spike to 39%, while Bernie's plummet to 6%. If Sanders takes it, then "no majority" spikes to 73%, while Joe and Bernie both fall below 15%...but Bernie could still be the delegate leader going into the convention.

Next 24 hours will be really interesting.
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Re: President Marianne

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rsersen wrote:Unfortunate turn of events, but seems like the DNC is hell-bent on keeping Sanders off the ticket
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I want Bernie as much as anybody but there is no foul play with Biden getting more votes than Bernie due to the other moderates dropping out.
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Re: President Marianne

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Gergall wrote:
rsersen wrote:Unfortunate turn of events, but seems like the DNC is hell-bent on keeping Sanders off the ticket
Black Panther wrote:"My son was murdered in ritual combat ."

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I want Bernie as much as anybody
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Re: President Marianne

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It's an expression but yes.
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Re: President Marianne

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I mean it's certainly not illegal, and I wouldn't even go so far as to call it foul play, but there's no way it wasn't coordinated in some way, even if that coordination was fairly informal. They all have similar political goals, especially around healthcare (and keeping insurance companies profitable), and those goals are better served by having just one candidate in the field instead of four.

I just wish that progressives could've coordinated around their supposed shared goals as well. Warren took 12% of the statewide vote in California which means she ate into Bernie's lead without getting any delegates out of it, and looks to be hovering around (or way below) the delegate threshhold in most districts in the state as well. I know that's just one state and result of her staying in when most of the moderates dropped out was the most stark here, but we're the state with the most delegates by far (10% of ALL pledged delegates to the convention), and the results are pretty similar in most states that voted yesterday. She came in 3rd in her home state while Biden came in 1st - if she had dropped out and endorsed Bernie, and her voters acted similarly to Pete and Amy's (where about 2/3rds of them voted for the candidate they endorsed), Bernie would have won the state. In fact, Biden would not have won a single state outside of the south.

Yeah, it sucks, and Bernard's chances are much lower than they were four days ago, but this race is far from over. If Warren stays in for the long haul (which now that the mysteriously-funded PersistPAC has said it won't be doing any pro-Warren ad buys for the states that vote next week, seems like it might be prohibitively expensive), the outlook doesn't look great for Bernie. But if she drops out and endorses him (maybe along with some other big names who haven't made endorsements like Yang/Booker/Kamala), that might just be the boost he needs to shift the momentum.

Even if she does stay in, Biden is still a totally a beatable candidate. He had a good night because of a chaotic 72 hours in which he dominated the media cycle with positive coverage and didn't enough have time to * it up, and that's not something he'll be able to replicate again since there's no one left to drop out. That good night turned into a delegate lead and momentum, which counts for a lot, but keep in mind this is a guy who's run for president three times since 1988 and hadn't won a single primary until four days ago. He was known for sticking his foot in his mouth and blatantly plagiarizing speeches even back when he was able to complete sentences, just imagine what it's like when he's confusing his wife and sister at a victory rally or forgetting the words to the Declaration of Independence.

He's more beatable in a 2-way race than a 3-way race (I'm not counting Tulsi since pretty much only republicans are voting for her so she's kind of a non-factor in the primary), but consolidating around this guy instead of any of the other options was a move made out of desperation. It worked out last night, but now that they're committed he's got to stick the landing and not choke under pressure for the first time in his political career.
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Re: President Marianne

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BrenDerlin wrote:
March 4th, 2020, 3:10 pm
I just wish that progressives could've coordinated around their supposed shared goals as well.
I wish that democratic leadership could show as much enthusiasm and commitment into stopping a republican presidential candidate as it did to stop a progressive grassroots movement.
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but this race is far from over
disagree
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Re: President Marianne

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I think it's disingenuous to count Warren's votes as "shoulda been Bernie's" unless you also count Bloomberg's votes as "shoulda been Biden's".

Clearly Biden will be collecting the lion's share of those Bloomberg voters for the remainder of the primaries.
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Re: President Marianne

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Yeah so Liz obliterating Bloomberg in the debates is another thing that hurt Bernie.
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Re: President Marianne

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I think the Sanders camp and his supporters need to accept some of this blame amongst themselves, rather than just scapegoating Warren or the DNC or the MSM or whatever the excuse of the hour is.

Bernie had 4 years to prepare for this run, and to learn the lessons from 2016. Years to build infrastructure and broaden his support among key demographics. Years to figure out how to better persuade moderates to his cause. He either didn't bother with any of that, or failed miserably trying.

Instead:

1) He made great promises without adequately explaining how they'd be paid for, let alone how he could work with both parties to get them through Congress. Something his rivals hit him with early and often. His answer of "How much time do you have" when asked to explain how M4A would be funded has to rank as one the all-time worst debate answers. Dismissive and condescending response to a completely legitimate question. No surprise that voters just started assuming he was full of hot air.

2) Continued to rail against centrists and "the establishment", which only served to turn off the moderate voters he needed. And his supporters (particularly in online communities like Reddit and Twitter) were just as toxic, going scorched earth on anyone who dared support any another candidate. And - spoiler alert - they're not taking today very well either. Just in the last few hours I've read no less than 3 dozen comments hoping that Biden and baby boomers die from Coronavirus, that black people are too stupid to know what's good for them, or that Democrats in southern states just shouldn't be able to vote because, idk, reasons. Really hard to imagine why more people didn't feel the Bern.

3) Pinned his hopes on a voting bloc that simply does not, and never has, shown up when it matters. 13% turnout for the 18-29 demographic is abysmal, there's no way to sugarcoat it. When it comes to starting a revolution, apparently they have time to post on social media, but standing in line to actually cast a vote is a bridge too far.

Moderates got their chance to answer yesterday, and it was a firm and resounding no. If anything, Bernie owes Bloomberg a thank you note, because if it really was a two-candidate race the damage would have been even worse.

And yes, this is over, especially with Bloomberg now out. Bernie needed to build a decent firewall last night to protect against the states that Joe is about to run the table on, and he didn't. The only question is whether Bernie will come to terms with it and make a call for unity in early/mid-April, or whether he'll drag this out to the bitter end. Either way, he will not be the nominee.

My hope at this point is for a Biden/Warren ticket, which would help Joe shore up support with two of his weaker groups right now, progressives and women. They beat Trump, and come 2024, an 82-year-old Biden decides he doesn't want to run for a second term. He throws his support behind Warren, who could then have 4-8 years and a bluer Congress to actually accomplish a lot of what Bernie wanted.
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