rhendon wrote: ↑June 10th, 2020, 9:31 am
Well lets do the math Hunter.
I had done the math already. "I'm good with calculation." (And also, am possibly a robot.)
rhendon wrote: ↑June 10th, 2020, 9:31 am
In 2 years during the Ebola outbreak, Ebola infected less than 30k people (according to CDC). It killed just over 11k. So less than 50% mortality rate (even though you stated 80% above).
That's not being good with calculation. 12k people is "less than 30k people."
If "less than 30k people" were infected (let's say...12k) and it killed "just over 11k" of them, is the mortality rate less than 50%? Don't think so.
Being more serious now, yeah, I stated over 80%. That's not something I would have just made up though. Your sample numbers are from the 2014 outbreak, which was caused by the Zaire ebolavirus. That was the largest ebolavirus outbreak, and Zaire ebolavirus has also been behind *more* ebolavirus outbreaks than any other kind of ebolavirus, so it makes sense that you would have used an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus in your example. That's the one people have most often meant when they just say "ebolavirus." So you've got the right one, but I don't know why you would look only at the one outbreak, even if it was the biggest one.
When talking about Zaire ebolavirus' fatality rate, Wikipedia sez (emphasis mine) that it is "up to 90% in some epidemics, with an average case fatality rate of
approximately 83% over 27 years."
You can nitpick that if you want, but it won't change the fact that infections caused by ebolavirus are still
phenomenally more dangerous than Covid-19 infections.
rhendon wrote: ↑June 10th, 2020, 9:31 am
Let's take your 0.10% mortality rate. 2 million cases (which is definitely underreported because of lack of testing), and use that 0.10 #. That .1 is still 2,000 people. Which is 1/5 of what Ebola killed in 2 years. So simple math of 4 months to 2 years shows COVID on pace to kill 12k people (in the US) in the same time frame as Ebola killed in 2 years (worldwide).
You have multiple problems there. For one, ebola killed for a lot more than 2 years, and killed a lot more than 10,000 people because you're just talking about a single outbreak, when there were several. Second, it's useless to talk about what Covid is "on pace" to do "in the same time-frame" when we don't know whether Covid will actually make it to a length of 2 years (or 1 year, for that matter). Lotta outbreaks of disease have dried up (for good) in less time than that. And you are the one who keeps talking about how much we DON'T know about this virus, so you can't try to tell me you KNOW that it will last as long as even that SINGLE ebola outbreak did.
rhendon wrote: ↑June 10th, 2020, 9:31 am
We wouldn't have had to shut down the economy if our leaders had pressed for social distancing, wearing masks, etc a lot sooner and told people that this was a serious disease that needed to be dealt with. Instead we had leaders pushing the same agenda that you are Hunter and people died for it. People DIED that didn't need to. People DIED because of misinformation.
That is why I wear my mask. That is why I social distance. It isn't to protect me. I do it to protect others from catching it from me because I don't know if I'm infected or not. I don't want to be the cause of someone else's death. I don't want to be part of the problem. I want to be part of the solution.
Were you busily being part of the solution while the CDC was saying that people don't need to wear masks? Unlike those dumb leaders, were you running around telling people "Don't listen to the CDC! What would an organization named the 'Centers for Disease Control' know about containing the spread of a new virus? Prolly nuthin, right? Wear a damn mask!"
I mentioned the notices from the CDC that were plastered all over the government facility I work in. It had a big list of Do's and Don'ts for all of us who are employed by the Agency. The "What to do" list had a whole bunch of stuff on it, but the "What not to do" list was actually only 2 items.
The first said they recommend not visiting countries that have a travel advisory.
The other said (and I quote): "The general population does not need to wear masks."
Wearing a mask. That's what NOT to do, on a list of only TWO things NOT to do.
It would seem that eventually, the CDC was kidnapped and reprogrammed (maybe it was the same people that got to Drew Brees?) resulting in the flip-flop that Reid referenced earlier. But I would guess you didn't think people should start wearing masks until someone TOLD you to think that people should start wearing masks. Even if it was the SAME someone who'd been telling you the exact opposite for the 2 months prior.
rhendon wrote:So it looks like this was on the radar of the WH and our leaders as early as Jan 22. Imagine if we had as a country developed a plan of attack then to social distance and wear masks instead of doing it in late March and early April.
How was that supposed to happen, given the above?
I think Motti's mostly got this part of the conversation "locked down" so I'll let him handle it. But yeah...what he said.
rhendon wrote:Do you wait to come up with a fireplan for evacuating your house until after you have a fire or do you come up with one ahead of time and make sure your family is aware of what to do in that situation?
When the fire alarm for my apartment complex goes off, I put in earplugs and try to get back to sleep. This isn't a joke of some sort. I have already done this twice this year.
#Fireproof
#RobotsRule